How does the economy impact crime? Is there any link between the two, or is it all urban myth?
In recent times there have been concerns raised about the potential for the cost of living and current economic status to impact crime levels. Here’s what we know about the relationship between the economy and crime levels.
Does the economy impact crime?
There are several factors which are known to impact levels of crime, so it’s impossible to find one cause for any changes in crime levels.
However one of these factors is the economy; A downturn in the economy can lead to financial hardship and unemployment. This can lead to criminal behaviour through frustration, disillusionment or simply as a means for survival.
Looking at recent history, we can see that in times of economic downturn, crime levels respond. Following the 1991-92 recession, there was a rise in burglary rates. Back in January 2009, following the financial crash in 2008, ministers called an ’emergency summit’ to tackle a ‘significant rise’ in burglaries and robberies.
In recent years, during what has been dubbed “the cost of living crisis”, we have seen retail taking the toll, with theft levels break new record highs in consecutive data reports from ONS. The latest crime survey for England and Wales showed an increase in overall crime of 12%, with increases in theft, violence and fraud. Although criminal damage and computer misuse have decreased. Police recorded crime reported increases in shoplifting and robbery as well as offences involving knives or sharp instruments. New data is due on this later this month, so we will see whether these are anomalies or the beginnings of a trend.
Not all crimes are impacted by the economy
Research has shown that there is a positive correlation between unemployment rates and crime rates. Although, not all crimes are impacted by changes in the economy. And of those which are affected, it has been found to be at differing levels. Property crimes such as theft and burglary are more sensitive to changes in the economy than other crimes. Fox et al (2011) carrying out research in Greater Manchester found that expected cuts to local government expenditure, which may impact unemployment and support, was one of four key factors in determining the effect of recession on crime levels.
unemployment is an important determinant of property crime rates.
Raphael & Winter-Ebmer (2001)
So whilst a relationship has been shown between crime and the economy, it is not the only factor. Social and environmental factors are also in play. Whilst we focus on protecting premises with our security systems for homes and businesses, it’s also important to look at ways to tackle crime at the source.